V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
43.29%
decreased by 1.63%
1 Week
43.11%
decreased by 1.81%
1 Month
42.40%
decreased by 2.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0513 | 4.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0466 | 24.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9905 | 436.72*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0939 | 7.11*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
73 days
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