V-Lab
Alpha Compute Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
126.95%
decreased by 7.15%
1 Week
130.90%
decreased by 3.20%
1 Month
141.80%
increased by 7.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2020 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 2.94 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 106.8041 | 1.00 |
| αARCH | 0.1128 | 6.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9505 | 20.97*** |
| νDF | 2.9396 | 3.32*** |
0.950
Persistence14d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 106.8041 | 1.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1128 | 6.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9505 | 20.97*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9396 | 3.32*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
Other Alpha Compute Corp Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equities