Alpha Compute Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
131.65%
decreased by 14.69%
1 Week
134.70%
decreased by 11.64%
1 Month
143.49%
decreased by 2.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2020 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 3.05 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 108.0043 | 1.05 |
| αscore | 0.1159 | 6.56*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9556 | 25.06*** |
| νDF | 3.0464 | 3.42*** |
0.956
Persistence15d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 108.0043 | 1.05 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1159 | 6.56*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9556 | 25.06*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0464 | 3.42*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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