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V-Lab

Alpha Compute Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

126.95%

decreased by 7.15%

1 Week

130.90%

decreased by 3.20%

1 Month

141.80%

increased by 7.70%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Alpha Compute Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 4, 2020 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 2.94 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst106.8041
1.00
αARCH0.1128
6.03***
βGARCH0.9505
20.97***
νDF2.9396
3.32***

0.950

Persistence

14d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

106.8041
1.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1128
6.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9505
20.97***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.9396
3.32***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

14 days