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V-Lab

Alpha Compute Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

131.65%

decreased by 14.69%

1 Week

134.70%

decreased by 11.64%

1 Month

143.49%

decreased by 2.85%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Alpha Compute Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 4, 2020 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 3.05 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run108.0043
1.05
αscore0.1159
6.56***
βpersistence0.9556
25.06***
νDF3.0464
3.42***

0.956

Persistence

15d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

108.0043
1.05
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1159
6.56***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9556
25.06***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.0464
3.42***

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

15 days