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V-Lab

Alpha Compute Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

201.56%

increased by 5.87%

1 Week

198.62%

increased by 2.93%

1 Month

189.67%

decreased by 6.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Alpha Compute Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 4, 2020 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 2.96 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst110.0772
1.01
αARCH0.1162
6.18***
βGARCH0.9520
22.01***
νDF2.9587
3.43***

0.952

Persistence

14d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

110.0772
1.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1162
6.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9520
22.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.9587
3.43***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days