V-Lab
Alpha Compute Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
173.97%
increased by 23.54%
1 Week
173.68%
increased by 23.25%
1 Month
172.74%
increased by 22.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 114.5903 | 4.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1160 | 28.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9612 | 115.61*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0339 | 15.17*** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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