Buda Juice Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
71.44%
decreased by 1.84%
1 Week
71.43%
decreased by 1.85%
1 Month
71.42%
decreased by 1.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 34.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 34.50 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 21.1661 | 3.83*** |
| αscore | 0.0419 | 0.23 |
| βpersistence | 0.8242 | 1.68* |
| νDF | 34.4960 | 0.01 |
0.824
Persistence4d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 21.1661 | 3.83*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0419 | 0.23 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8242 | 1.68* |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 34.4960 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.824
Half-life:
4 days
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