V-Lab
Keel Infrastructure Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
91.87%
increased by 0.86%
1 Week
93.53%
increased by 2.52%
1 Month
97.49%
increased by 6.48%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 21, 2021 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 7.65 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 41.8609 | 2.36** |
| αARCH | 0.0459 | 1.39 |
| βGARCH | 0.9209 | 16.52*** |
| νDF | 7.6537 | 0.17 |
0.921
Persistence8d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 41.8609 | 2.36** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0459 | 1.39 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9209 | 16.52*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.6537 | 0.17 |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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