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McDonald's Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 4th, 2026

1 Day

23.16%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

23.19%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Month

23.30%

decreased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/03/2024

to

11/03/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of McDonald's Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 151 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~151 daysv = 6.05 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.7001
1.04
αscore0.0547
11.69***
βpersistence0.9954
221.50***
νDF6.0454
2.46**

0.995

Persistence

151d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.7001
1.04
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0547
11.69***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9954
221.50***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0454
2.46**

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

151 days