V-Lab
McDonald's Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
20.70%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
20.75%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
20.95%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5333 | 4.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0525 | 45.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9950 | 806.96*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6522 | 10.09*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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