V-Lab
McDonald's Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.98%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
23.99%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
24.05%
decreased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 139 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5558 | 4.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0528 | 45.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9950 | 812.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6474 | 10.18*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
139 days
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