V-Lab
McDonald's Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
23.44%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
23.46%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Month
23.54%
decreased by 0.83%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 140 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5562 | 4.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0525 | 45.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9950 | 820.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6575 | 10.17*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
140 days
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