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McDonald's Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

18.65%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

18.72%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Month

19.02%

decreased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:19 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of McDonald's Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 137 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~137 daysv = 5.65 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5203
1.03
αARCH0.0525
11.25***
βGARCH0.9950
200.27***
νDF5.6510
2.51**

0.995

Persistence

137d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5203
1.03
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0525
11.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9950
200.27***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.6510
2.51**

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

137 days