Skip to main content
V-Lab

McDonald's Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

20.70%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

20.75%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Month

20.95%

decreased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of McDonald's Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5333
4.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0525
45.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9950
806.96***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.6522
10.09***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days