McDonald's Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
18.27%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
18.36%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
18.67%
decreased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 139 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~139 daysv = 5.63 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5270 | 1.03 |
| αARCH | 0.0520 | 11.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9950 | 203.02*** |
| νDF | 5.6253 | 2.54** |
0.995
Persistence139d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5270 | 1.03 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0520 | 11.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9950 | 203.02*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6253 | 2.54** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
139 days
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