V-Lab
McDonald's Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
19.56%
1 Week
19.63%
1 Month
19.87%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5292 | 1.03 |
| αARCH | 0.0523 | 11.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9950 | 202.52*** |
| νDF | 5.6574 | 2.51** |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5292 | 1.03 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0523 | 11.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9950 | 202.52*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6574 | 2.51** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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