McDonald's Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
24.75%
increased by 2.34%
1 Week
24.05%
increased by 1.64%
1 Month
22.94%
increased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0239 | 9.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7767 | 57.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1141 | 21.35*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0084 | 1.99** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0242 | 2.54** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9715 | 95.00*** |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
Other McDonald's Corp Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equities