V-Lab
McDonald's Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
20.27%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
20.45%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
20.80%
decreased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0234 | 9.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7772 | 57.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1139 | 21.38*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0083 | 1.98** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0241 | 2.52** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9716 | 94.74*** |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
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