V-Lab
Vulcan Infrastructure and Power Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
120.97%
1 Week
129.59%
1 Month
130.15%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 120% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1506 | 6.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4713 | 2.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0821 | -2.15** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1242 | 0.09 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7163 | 0.20 |
Persistence:
0.581
Half-life:
1 days
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