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ExxonMobil Holdings Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

23.41%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

24.02%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

24.86%

increased by 0.86%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ExxonMobil Holdings Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 260% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 260% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0359
3.28***
βGARCH0.7989
29.67***
γleverage0.0936
5.64***
λ₁tau intercept0.0173
2.50**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0536
4.25***
λ₃tau persistence0.9389
64.32***

0.882

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0359
3.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7989
29.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0936
5.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0173
2.50**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0536
4.25***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9389
64.32***

Persistence:

0.882

Half-life:

5 days