V-Lab
ExxonMobil Holdings Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
23.64%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
24.36%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
25.47%
increased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:11 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 260% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 260% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0359 | 3.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7992 | 29.72*** |
| γleverage | 0.0935 | 5.64*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0173 | 2.49** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0535 | 4.24*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9389 | 64.18*** |
0.882
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0359 | 3.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7992 | 29.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0935 | 5.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0173 | 2.49** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0535 | 4.24*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9389 | 64.18*** |
Persistence:
0.882
Half-life:
6 days
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