V-Lab
ExxonMobil Holdings Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
23.98%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
24.60%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
25.90%
increased by 1.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 257% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 257% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0353 | 3.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8142 | 34.27*** |
| γleverage | 0.0907 | 5.67*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0253 | 2.19** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0752 | 3.21*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9136 | 33.51*** |
0.895
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0353 | 3.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8142 | 34.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0907 | 5.67*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0253 | 2.19** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0752 | 3.21*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9136 | 33.51*** |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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