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ExxonMobil Holdings Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

23.64%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

24.36%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

25.47%

increased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:11 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ExxonMobil Holdings Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 260% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 260% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0359
3.28***
βGARCH0.7992
29.72***
γleverage0.0935
5.64***
λ₁tau intercept0.0173
2.49**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0535
4.24***
λ₃tau persistence0.9389
64.18***

0.882

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0359
3.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7992
29.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0935
5.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0173
2.49**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0535
4.24***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9389
64.18***

Persistence:

0.882

Half-life:

6 days