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V-Lab

ExxonMobil Holdings Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

23.98%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

24.60%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Month

25.90%

increased by 1.21%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:42 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ExxonMobil Holdings Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 257% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 257% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0353
3.37***
βGARCH0.8142
34.27***
γleverage0.0907
5.67***
λ₁tau intercept0.0253
2.19**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0752
3.21***
λ₃tau persistence0.9136
33.51***

0.895

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0353
3.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8142
34.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0907
5.67***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0253
2.19**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0752
3.21***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9136
33.51***

Persistence:

0.895

Half-life:

6 days