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ExxonMobil Holdings Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

37.51%

decreased by 2.78%

1 Week

35.94%

decreased by 4.35%

1 Month

32.94%

decreased by 7.35%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ExxonMobil Holdings Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 250% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 250% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0360
3.43***
βGARCH0.8137
34.24***
γleverage0.0899
5.64***
λ₁tau intercept0.0245
2.19**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0741
3.25***
λ₃tau persistence0.9152
34.67***

0.895

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0360
3.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8137
34.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0899
5.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0245
2.19**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0741
3.25***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9152
34.67***

Persistence:

0.895

Half-life:

6 days