V-Lab
ExxonMobil Holdings Corp GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
23.49%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
23.51%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Month
23.60%
decreased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0231 | 5.13*** |
| αARCH | 0.0663 | 9.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9242 | 129.52*** |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0231 | 5.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0663 | 9.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9242 | 129.52*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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