Wal-Mart Stores Inc GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
25.11%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
25.13%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
25.20%
increased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~104 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0184 | 3.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.0430 | 6.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9503 | 132.84*** |
0.993
Persistence104d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0184 | 3.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0430 | 6.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9503 | 132.84*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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