V-Lab
Wal-Mart Stores Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
33.91%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
34.09%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Month
34.65%
decreased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2259 | 8.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.0503 | 5.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9155 | 53.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0276 | 0.98 |
| γ2 | 0.0059 | 0.13 |
| γ3 | -0.1318 | -3.75*** |
| γ4 | 0.1860 | 5.68*** |
| γ5 | -0.1519 | -4.07*** |
| γ6 | 0.1404 | 3.10*** |
| γ7 | -0.1222 | -2.30** |
| γ8 | 0.0536 | 0.95 |
| γ9 | 0.0471 | 0.52 |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2259 | 8.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0503 | 5.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9155 | 53.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0276 | 0.98 |
| γ2 | 0.0059 | 0.13 |
| γ3 | -0.1318 | -3.75*** |
| γ4 | 0.1860 | 5.68*** |
| γ5 | -0.1519 | -4.07*** |
| γ6 | 0.1404 | 3.10*** |
| γ7 | -0.1222 | -2.30** |
| γ8 | 0.0536 | 0.95 |
| γ9 | 0.0471 | 0.52 |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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