V-Lab
Coca-Cola Co/The Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
19.58%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
20.00%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
21.20%
increased by 1.46%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2978 | 7.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0678 | 6.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8892 | 54.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0043 | -0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.0658 | 1.14 |
| γ3 | -0.1665 | -3.98*** |
| γ4 | 0.1636 | 3.32*** |
| γ5 | -0.0493 | -0.96 |
| γ6 | -0.0409 | -1.03 |
| γ7 | 0.0915 | 2.57** |
| γ8 | -0.1374 | -2.63*** |
| γ9 | 0.1878 | 2.31** |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2978 | 7.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0678 | 6.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8892 | 54.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0043 | -0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.0658 | 1.14 |
| γ3 | -0.1665 | -3.98*** |
| γ4 | 0.1636 | 3.32*** |
| γ5 | -0.0493 | -0.96 |
| γ6 | -0.0409 | -1.03 |
| γ7 | 0.0915 | 2.57** |
| γ8 | -0.1374 | -2.63*** |
| γ9 | 0.1878 | 2.31** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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