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V-Lab
V-Lab

Applied Materials Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

51.14%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

51.49%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

52.68%

increased by 1.02%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Applied Materials Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9363
8.76***
αARCH0.0505
8.03***
βGARCH0.9243
100.09***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0147
-5.08***
γ20.0238
5.33***
γ3-0.0073
-1.33

0.975

Persistence

27d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9363
8.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0505
8.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9243
100.09***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0147
-5.08***
γ20.0238
5.33***
γ3-0.0073
-1.33

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days