Applied Materials Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
77.61%
1 Week
74.06%
1 Month
62.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 20% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.99 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0359 | 4.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.1512 | 17.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8482 | 96.11*** |
| γleverage | 0.0927 | 4.18*** |
| δpower | 0.9947 | 5.07*** |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0359 | 4.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1512 | 17.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8482 | 96.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0927 | 4.18*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9947 | 5.07*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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