Caterpillar Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
40.04%
1 Week
37.53%
1 Month
30.99%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 21% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.90 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0690 | 6.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.1796 | 18.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7966 | 73.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.1037 | 4.91*** |
| δpower | 0.8987 | 5.17*** |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0690 | 6.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1796 | 18.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7966 | 73.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1037 | 4.91*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8987 | 5.17*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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