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V-Lab

Caterpillar Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

51.26%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

47.49%

decreased by 3.86%

1 Month

37.75%

decreased by 13.60%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caterpillar Inc APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 21% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.90 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0680
26.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1782
74.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7987
293.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1054
19.82***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9045
20.79***

Persistence:

0.940

Half-life:

11 days