V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
37.75%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
37.74%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Month
37.67%
decreased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 244% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 244% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0245 | 2.32** |
| αARCH | 0.0786 | 6.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9856 | 237.09*** |
| γleverage | -0.0432 | -4.11*** |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0245 | 2.32** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0786 | 6.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9856 | 237.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0432 | -4.11*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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