V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
33.00%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
33.00%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
33.03%
decreased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0488 | 3.74*** |
| αARCH | 0.0080 | 2.29** |
| βGARCH | 0.9577 | 176.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.0463 | 4.11*** |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0488 | 3.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0080 | 2.29** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9577 | 176.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0463 | 4.11*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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