Caterpillar Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
53.86%
increased by 0.94%
1 Week
53.52%
increased by 0.60%
1 Month
52.20%
decreased by 0.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0472 | 3.68*** |
| αARCH | 0.0074 | 2.15** |
| βGARCH | 0.9587 | 181.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.0465 | 4.20*** |
0.989
Persistence65d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0472 | 3.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0074 | 2.15** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9587 | 181.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0465 | 4.20*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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