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Caterpillar Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

33.00%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

33.00%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Month

33.03%

decreased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caterpillar Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0488
3.74***
αARCH0.0080
2.29**
βGARCH0.9577
176.14***
γleverage0.0463
4.11***

0.989

Persistence

62d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0488
3.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0080
2.29**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9577
176.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0463
4.11***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days