V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
43.92%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
43.73%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Month
43.00%
decreased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0470 | 14.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0075 | 8.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9587 | 721.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0463 | 16.76*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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