Caterpillar Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
41.41%
increased by 0.28%
1 Week
41.25%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
40.66%
decreased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0476 | 3.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0077 | 2.23** |
| βGARCH | 0.9585 | 179.43*** |
| γleverage | 0.0459 | 4.14*** |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0476 | 3.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0077 | 2.23** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9585 | 179.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0459 | 4.14*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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