V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
1,987.31%
decreased by 132.12%
1 Week
1,987.33%
decreased by 132.10%
1 Month
1,987.37%
decreased by 132.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0935 | 6.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0460 | 2.42** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8668 | 32.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1744 | 1.62 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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