V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
1,408.59%
decreased by 111.24%
1 Week
1,408.61%
decreased by 111.22%
1 Month
1,408.68%
decreased by 111.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0939 | 5.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0486 | 2.39** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8586 | 26.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1857 | 1.41 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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