V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
535.15%
decreased by 12.96%
1 Week
535.16%
decreased by 12.95%
1 Month
535.21%
decreased by 12.90%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0265 | 5.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6068 | 2.00** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3932 | 2.11** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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