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V-Lab

Semilux International Ltd -Redh Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

2,276.60%

decreased by 135.19%

1 Week

2,560.00%

increased by 148.21%

1 Month

3,180.61%

increased by 768.82%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Semilux International Ltd -Redh SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 28, 2022 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0249
1.83*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2284
1.75*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7025
5.13***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-3.4379
-0.36
γ24.1936
0.28
γ330.0427
2.92***
γ4-69.5946
-3.61***
γ552.9303
1.95*
γ6-22.9478
-1.06
γ722.5658
1.65*
γ8-29.1554
-1.90*
γ957.1112
2.41**

Persistence:

0.931

Half-life:

10 days