V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
2,276.60%
decreased by 135.19%
1 Week
2,560.00%
increased by 148.21%
1 Month
3,180.61%
increased by 768.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0249 | 1.83* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2284 | 1.75* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7025 | 5.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -3.4379 | -0.36 |
| γ2 | 4.1936 | 0.28 |
| γ3 | 30.0427 | 2.92*** |
| γ4 | -69.5946 | -3.61*** |
| γ5 | 52.9303 | 1.95* |
| γ6 | -22.9478 | -1.06 |
| γ7 | 22.5658 | 1.65* |
| γ8 | -29.1554 | -1.90* |
| γ9 | 57.1112 | 2.41** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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