V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
3,262.39%
decreased by 341.56%
1 Week
3,444.14%
decreased by 159.81%
1 Month
4,537.16%
increased by 933.21%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0545 | 3.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7738 | 27.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3194 | 5.26*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.54 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1439 | 0.23 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8561 | 1.55 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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