V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
2,200.52%
decreased by 256.63%
1 Week
2,273.80%
decreased by 183.35%
1 Month
2,838.84%
increased by 381.69%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0611 | 3.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7791 | 29.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2947 | 5.48*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.52 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1527 | 0.23 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8473 | 1.42 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
55 days
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