Semilux International Ltd -Redh MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
417.00%
increased by 13.22%
1 Week
416.87%
increased by 13.09%
1 Month
424.94%
increased by 21.16%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0156 | 0.46 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8460 | 49.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1494 | 2.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.2175 | 0.05 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 0.05 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
11 days
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