V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
2,194.27%
decreased by 212.92%
1 Week
2,271.16%
decreased by 136.03%
1 Month
2,808.38%
increased by 401.19%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0408 | 2.57** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8060 | 38.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2565 | 5.89*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.82 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3578 | 0.33 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6422 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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