V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
51.74%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
54.94%
increased by 2.72%
1 Month
59.94%
increased by 7.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 368% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0308 | 10.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7853 | 89.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1134 | 19.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0229 | 1.74* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0464 | 2.06** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9472 | 38.33*** |
Persistence:
0.873
Half-life:
5 days
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