V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
93.54%
decreased by 6.77%
1 Week
89.77%
decreased by 10.54%
1 Month
82.47%
decreased by 17.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0265 | 9.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7831 | 80.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1160 | 20.21*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0291 | 1.50 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0618 | 1.65* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9307 | 23.03*** |
Persistence:
0.868
Half-life:
5 days
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