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V-Lab

International Business Machines Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

51.74%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

54.94%

increased by 2.72%

1 Month

59.94%

increased by 7.72%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of International Business Machines Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 368% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0308
10.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7853
89.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1134
19.50***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0229
1.74*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0464
2.06**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9472
38.33***

Persistence:

0.873

Half-life:

5 days