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V-Lab

International Business Machines Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

91.39%

decreased by 1.89%

1 Week

90.62%

decreased by 2.66%

1 Month

87.71%

decreased by 5.57%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of International Business Machines Corp GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 107% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0322
12.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0274
14.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9487
496.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0292
7.44***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days