V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
91.39%
decreased by 1.89%
1 Week
90.62%
decreased by 2.66%
1 Month
87.71%
decreased by 5.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 107% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0322 | 12.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0274 | 14.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9487 | 496.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0292 | 7.44*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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