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International Business Machines Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

34.02%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

33.90%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Month

33.44%

decreased by 1.07%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:41 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of International Business Machines Corp GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 114% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 114% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0427
3.55***
αARCH0.0311
3.97***
βGARCH0.9381
111.65***
γleverage0.0355
2.14**

0.987

Persistence

53d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0427
3.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0311
3.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9381
111.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0355
2.14**

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days