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International Business Machines Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

38.76%

increased by 0.50%

1 Week

38.55%

increased by 0.29%

1 Month

37.76%

decreased by 0.50%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of International Business Machines Corp GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 112% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 112% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0409
3.46***
αARCH0.0306
3.93***
βGARCH0.9399
112.79***
γleverage0.0344
2.10**

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0409
3.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0306
3.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9399
112.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0344
2.10**

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days