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International Business Machines Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

29.07%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

29.06%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

29.03%

decreased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of International Business Machines Corp GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 115% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 115% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0438
3.59***
αARCH0.0316
4.00***
βGARCH0.9369
110.39***
γleverage0.0363
2.16**

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0438
3.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0316
4.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9369
110.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0363
2.16**

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days