V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
38.76%
increased by 0.50%
1 Week
38.55%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
37.76%
decreased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 112% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 112% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0409 | 3.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.0306 | 3.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9399 | 112.79*** |
| γleverage | 0.0344 | 2.10** |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0409 | 3.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0306 | 3.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9399 | 112.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0344 | 2.10** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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