V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
50.42%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Week
50.05%
decreased by 1.70%
1 Month
48.63%
decreased by 3.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 109% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0371 | 13.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0291 | 15.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9439 | 464.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0317 | 8.01*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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