V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
34.02%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
33.90%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
33.44%
decreased by 1.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 114% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 114% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0427 | 3.55*** |
| αARCH | 0.0311 | 3.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9381 | 111.65*** |
| γleverage | 0.0355 | 2.14** |
0.987
Persistence53d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0427 | 3.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0311 | 3.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9381 | 111.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0355 | 2.14** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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