V-Lab
Amazon.com Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
37.01%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
37.07%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
37.30%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 387 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~387 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0182 | 1.99** |
| αARCH | 0.0108 | 2.37** |
| βGARCH | 0.9820 | 214.31*** |
| γleverage | 0.0108 | 1.16 |
0.998
Persistence387d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0182 | 1.99** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0108 | 2.37** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9820 | 214.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0108 | 1.16 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
387 days
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