V-Lab
Amazon.com Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
40.11%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
40.15%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
40.33%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 379 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 94% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0187 | 8.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0113 | 9.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9816 | 846.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0106 | 4.43*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
379 days
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