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V-Lab

Amazon.com Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

39.13%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

39.18%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Month

39.37%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Amazon.com Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 16, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 382 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 96% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0185
8.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0111
9.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9818
850.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0106
4.49***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

382 days