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V-Lab

Amazon.com Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

40.11%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

40.15%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

40.33%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Amazon.com Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 16, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 379 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 94% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0187
8.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0113
9.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9816
846.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0106
4.43***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

379 days