V-Lab
Amazon.com Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
34.65%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
34.72%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
34.99%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 1997 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 390 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~390 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0179 | 1.95* |
| αARCH | 0.0106 | 2.37** |
| βGARCH | 0.9821 | 214.95*** |
| γleverage | 0.0110 | 1.21 |
0.998
Persistence390d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0179 | 1.95* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0106 | 2.37** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9821 | 214.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0110 | 1.21 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
390 days
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