Amazon.com Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
42.07%
decreased by 2.72%
1 Week
41.46%
decreased by 3.33%
1 Month
40.01%
decreased by 4.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 1997 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 330% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 330% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0412 | 3.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7671 | 28.72*** |
| γleverage | 0.1357 | 4.55*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0094 | 1.08 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0128 | 2.43** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9860 | 166.87*** |
0.876
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0412 | 3.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7671 | 28.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1357 | 4.55*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0094 | 1.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0128 | 2.43** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9860 | 166.87*** |
Persistence:
0.876
Half-life:
5 days
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