V-Lab
Amazon.com Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
31.20%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
32.77%
increased by 1.29%
1 Month
35.95%
increased by 4.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 332% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 332% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0410 | 3.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7666 | 28.60*** |
| γleverage | 0.1362 | 4.55*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0096 | 1.08 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0129 | 2.42** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9859 | 164.49*** |
0.876
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0410 | 3.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7666 | 28.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1362 | 4.55*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0096 | 1.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0129 | 2.42** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9859 | 164.49*** |
Persistence:
0.876
Half-life:
5 days
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