V-Lab
Amazon.com Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
29.87%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
31.88%
increased by 1.78%
1 Month
35.77%
increased by 5.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 1997 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 327% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 327% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0415 | 3.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7668 | 28.67*** |
| γleverage | 0.1358 | 4.54*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0093 | 1.07 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0127 | 2.44** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9861 | 168.31*** |
0.876
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0415 | 3.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7668 | 28.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1358 | 4.54*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0093 | 1.07 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0127 | 2.44** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9861 | 168.31*** |
Persistence:
0.876
Half-life:
5 days
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