V-Lab
Amazon.com Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
38.88%
decreased by 2.99%
1 Week
37.88%
decreased by 3.99%
1 Month
35.97%
decreased by 5.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 1997 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 332% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0400 | 14.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7689 | 89.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1329 | 18.45*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0093 | 1.25 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0129 | 2.17** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9859 | 138.41*** |
Persistence:
0.875
Half-life:
5 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equities