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V-Lab

Amazon.com Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

29.87%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

31.88%

increased by 1.78%

1 Month

35.77%

increased by 5.67%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Amazon.com Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 16, 1997 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 327% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 327% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0415
3.79***
βGARCH0.7668
28.67***
γleverage0.1358
4.54***
λ₁tau intercept0.0093
1.07
λ₂forecast adj.0.0127
2.44**
λ₃tau persistence0.9861
168.31***

0.876

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0415
3.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7668
28.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1358
4.54***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0093
1.07
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0127
2.44**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9861
168.31***

Persistence:

0.876

Half-life:

5 days