V-Lab
Amazon.com Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
32.65%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Week
33.63%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
35.93%
increased by 1.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 333% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0409 | 15.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7668 | 90.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1363 | 18.67*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0097 | 1.30 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0129 | 2.21** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9859 | 140.62*** |
Persistence:
0.876
Half-life:
5 days
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