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V-Lab

Amazon.com Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

31.20%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

32.77%

increased by 1.29%

1 Month

35.95%

increased by 4.47%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Amazon.com Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 16, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 332% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 332% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0410
3.77***
βGARCH0.7666
28.60***
γleverage0.1362
4.55***
λ₁tau intercept0.0096
1.08
λ₂forecast adj.0.0129
2.42**
λ₃tau persistence0.9859
164.49***

0.876

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0410
3.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7666
28.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1362
4.55***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0096
1.08
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0129
2.42**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9859
164.49***

Persistence:

0.876

Half-life:

5 days