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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	71
αARCH	0.0000	2.00**
βGARCH	0.1336	0.43
γleverage	0.0000	-0.01
λ₁tau intercept	0.0000	0.00
λ₂forecast adj.	0.3159	13.27***
λ₃tau persistence	0.0001	0.05

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	71
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0000	2.00**
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.1336	0.43
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.0000	-0.01
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0000	0.00
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.3159	13.27***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.0001	0.05

V-Lab

Jaguar Uranium Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Jaguar Uranium Corp Analyses