Jaguar Uranium Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
18.14%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
138.14%
increased by 119.79%
1 Month
3,103,375.13%
increased by 3,103,356.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 10, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.9762 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0008 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0064 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0001 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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