V-Lab
MindForge Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
253.78%
decreased by 18.12%
1 Week
250.80%
decreased by 21.10%
1 Month
240.22%
decreased by 31.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1163 | 10.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8622 | 57.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0013 | -0.05 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 117.7641 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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