V-Lab
MindForge Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
199.33%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Week
214.15%
increased by 13.29%
1 Month
219.04%
increased by 18.18%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5647 | 1.35 |
| αARCH | 0.1551 | 2.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2089 | 1.15 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 17.8846 | 0.52 |
| γ2 | -58.2917 | -1.17 |
| γ3 | 72.9342 | 2.44** |
| γ4 | -57.2796 | -2.86*** |
| γ5 | 58.4804 | 3.59*** |
| γ6 | -82.1000 | -5.04*** |
| γ7 | 115.5953 | 5.81*** |
| γ8 | -115.2755 | -3.86*** |
| γ9 | 60.9232 | 1.57 |
0.364
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5647 | 1.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1551 | 2.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2089 | 1.15 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 17.8846 | 0.52 |
| γ2 | -58.2917 | -1.17 |
| γ3 | 72.9342 | 2.44** |
| γ4 | -57.2796 | -2.86*** |
| γ5 | 58.4804 | 3.59*** |
| γ6 | -82.1000 | -5.04*** |
| γ7 | 115.5953 | 5.81*** |
| γ8 | -115.2755 | -3.86*** |
| γ9 | 60.9232 | 1.57 |
Persistence:
0.364
Half-life:
1 days
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