Skip to main content
V-Lab

MindForge Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

270.29%

decreased by 51.61%

1 Week

283.96%

decreased by 37.94%

1 Month

288.14%

decreased by 33.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of MindForge Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7555
1.88*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1650
2.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1561
0.96
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ168.6437
1.69*
γ2-139.9923
-2.37**
γ3106.3937
3.50***
γ4-37.6322
-1.98**
γ5-13.7914
-0.66
γ658.2093
2.19**
γ7-105.0716
-3.56***
γ8128.0778
3.44***
γ9-69.3959
-1.56
γ10-52.3550
-1.49

Persistence:

0.321

Half-life:

1 days