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V-Lab

CID Holdco Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

254.80%

decreased by 16.27%

1 Week

256.21%

decreased by 14.86%

1 Month

257.38%

decreased by 13.69%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of CID Holdco Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 23, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4944
2.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4008
2.08**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2839
2.17**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.4037
0.19

Persistence:

0.685

Half-life:

2 days