V-Lab
CID Holdco Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
209.40%
decreased by 5.33%
1 Week
203.97%
decreased by 10.76%
1 Month
187.85%
decreased by 26.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.51 |
| αARCH | 0.0322 | 0.62 |
| βGARCH | 0.7780 | 14.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.2680 | 0.70 |
0.944
Persistence12d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0322 | 0.62 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7780 | 14.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2680 | 0.70 |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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