V-Lab
CID Holdco Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
235.37%
decreased by 21.45%
1 Week
235.78%
decreased by 21.04%
1 Month
237.20%
decreased by 19.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 33-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.43 |
| αARCH | 0.0782 | 0.91 |
| βGARCH | 0.8190 | 9.36*** |
| γleverage | 0.1636 | 0.37 |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.43 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0782 | 0.91 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8190 | 9.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1636 | 0.37 |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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