V-Lab
Apple Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
26.06%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
26.42%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
27.81%
increased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 359 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 180% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~359 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 180% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0432 | 3.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.0305 | 4.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9401 | 155.08*** |
| γleverage | 0.0549 | 3.37*** |
0.998
Persistence359d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0432 | 3.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 4.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9401 | 155.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0549 | 3.37*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
359 days
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