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V-Lab

Apple Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

29.50%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Week

29.81%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Month

30.99%

increased by 0.77%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Apple Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 367 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 180% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~367 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 180% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0429
3.62***
αARCH0.0303
4.01***
βGARCH0.9406
155.88***
γleverage0.0545
3.37***

0.998

Persistence

367d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0429
3.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0303
4.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9406
155.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0545
3.37***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

367 days