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V-Lab

Apple Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

32.54%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Week

32.81%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Month

33.86%

increased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Apple Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 375 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 181% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0428
14.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0302
15.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9407
624.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0546
13.49***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

375 days