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V-Lab

Apple Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

43.56%

decreased by 1.23%

1 Week

43.74%

decreased by 1.05%

1 Month

44.45%

decreased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Apple Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 404 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 181% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0442
14.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0311
16.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9391
614.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0562
13.58***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

404 days