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V-Lab

Apple Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

26.06%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

26.42%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

27.81%

increased by 1.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Apple Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 359 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 180% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~359 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 180% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0432
3.62***
αARCH0.0305
4.04***
βGARCH0.9401
155.08***
γleverage0.0549
3.37***

0.998

Persistence

359d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0432
3.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0305
4.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9401
155.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0549
3.37***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

359 days