V-Lab
Apple Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
32.54%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Week
32.81%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
33.86%
increased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 375 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 181% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0428 | 14.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0302 | 15.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9407 | 624.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0546 | 13.49*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
375 days
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