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V-Lab

Microsoft Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

26.77%

increased by 1.55%

1 Week

26.98%

increased by 1.76%

1 Month

27.76%

increased by 2.54%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC

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graph of Microsoft Corp GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 157% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 157% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0534
3.58***
αARCH0.0348
4.47***
βGARCH0.9271
131.54***
γleverage0.0548
2.92***

0.989

Persistence

64d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0534
3.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0348
4.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9271
131.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0548
2.92***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days