V-Lab
Microsoft Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
26.77%
increased by 1.55%
1 Week
26.98%
increased by 1.76%
1 Month
27.76%
increased by 2.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 157% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 157% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0534 | 3.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.0348 | 4.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9271 | 131.54*** |
| γleverage | 0.0548 | 2.92*** |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0534 | 3.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0348 | 4.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9271 | 131.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0548 | 2.92*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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