Microsoft Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
24.80%
increased by 1.21%
1 Week
25.08%
increased by 1.49%
1 Month
26.08%
increased by 2.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 159% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 159% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0539 | 3.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.0349 | 4.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9266 | 131.08*** |
| γleverage | 0.0554 | 2.94*** |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0539 | 3.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0349 | 4.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9266 | 131.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0554 | 2.94*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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