V-Lab
Microsoft Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
35.24%
decreased by 1.68%
1 Week
34.94%
decreased by 1.98%
1 Month
33.99%
decreased by 2.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3100 | 6.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0798 | 8.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8787 | 68.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0010 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | 0.0541 | 1.01 |
| γ3 | -0.1506 | -3.65*** |
| γ4 | 0.1762 | 4.82*** |
| γ5 | -0.1097 | -2.49** |
| γ6 | 0.0428 | 0.74 |
| γ7 | -0.0244 | -0.47 |
| γ8 | 0.0401 | 0.86 |
| γ9 | -0.0448 | -1.34 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
16 days
Other Microsoft Corp Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities