V-Lab
ATIF Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
91.12%
decreased by 1.91%
1 Week
97.93%
increased by 4.90%
1 Month
104.02%
increased by 10.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 3, 2019 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4524 | 3.34*** |
| αARCH | 0.2187 | 5.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5004 | 6.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.4967 | -0.89 |
| γ2 | 0.1379 | 0.18 |
| γ3 | 0.9765 | 2.17** |
| γ4 | -1.1440 | -2.95*** |
| γ5 | 0.6993 | 2.62*** |
0.719
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4524 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2187 | 5.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5004 | 6.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.4967 | -0.89 |
| γ2 | 0.1379 | 0.18 |
| γ3 | 0.9765 | 2.17** |
| γ4 | -1.1440 | -2.95*** |
| γ5 | 0.6993 | 2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.719
Half-life:
2 days
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