V-Lab
ATIF Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
96.59%
increased by 14.41%
1 Week
102.64%
increased by 20.46%
1 Month
113.04%
increased by 30.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 3, 2019 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 3.06 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 57.9975 | 1.20 |
| αARCH | 0.1962 | 2.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8704 | 8.40*** |
| νDF | 3.0637 | 2.57** |
0.870
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 57.9975 | 1.20 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1962 | 2.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8704 | 8.40*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0637 | 2.57** |
Persistence:
0.870
Half-life:
5 days
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