ATIF Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
72.61%
increased by 6.44%
1 Week
82.15%
increased by 15.98%
1 Month
99.50%
increased by 33.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 3, 2019 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 3.71 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 56.9783 | 1.38 |
| αscore | 0.2127 | 3.36*** |
| βpersistence | 0.8961 | 12.63*** |
| νDF | 3.7057 | 2.10** |
0.896
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 56.9783 | 1.38 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.2127 | 3.36*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8961 | 12.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7057 | 2.10** |
Persistence:
0.896
Half-life:
6 days
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