V-Lab
ATIF Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
95.36%
increased by 8.26%
1 Week
101.11%
increased by 14.01%
1 Month
111.26%
increased by 24.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 3, 2019 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 3.10 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 56.3751 | 1.21 |
| αARCH | 0.1918 | 2.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8749 | 8.76*** |
| νDF | 3.1009 | 2.50** |
0.875
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 56.3751 | 1.21 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1918 | 2.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8749 | 8.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1009 | 2.50** |
Persistence:
0.875
Half-life:
5 days
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