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Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

82.43%

decreased by 7.46%

1 Week

82.40%

decreased by 7.49%

1 Month

82.29%

decreased by 7.60%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 9, 2002 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 304 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~304 daysv = 3.49 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst23.0019
2.10**
αARCH0.0852
21.98***
βGARCH0.9977
1,058.03***
νDF3.4876
22.14***

0.998

Persistence

304d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

23.0019
2.10**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0852
21.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9977
1,058.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.4876
22.14***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

304 days