V-Lab
Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
82.43%
decreased by 7.46%
1 Week
82.40%
decreased by 7.49%
1 Month
82.29%
decreased by 7.60%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2002 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 304 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~304 daysv = 3.49 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 23.0019 | 2.10** |
| αARCH | 0.0852 | 21.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9977 | 1,058.03*** |
| νDF | 3.4876 | 22.14*** |
0.998
Persistence304d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 23.0019 | 2.10** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0852 | 21.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 1,058.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4876 | 22.14*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
304 days
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