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Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

96.25%

increased by 15.86%

1 Week

96.17%

increased by 15.78%

1 Month

95.85%

increased by 15.46%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 9, 2002 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 305 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~305 daysv = 3.50 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst22.9453
2.11**
αARCH0.0850
22.01***
βGARCH0.9977
1,065.95***
νDF3.4976
21.99***

0.998

Persistence

305d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

22.9453
2.11**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0850
22.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9977
1,065.95***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.4976
21.99***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

305 days