Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
96.25%
increased by 15.86%
1 Week
96.17%
increased by 15.78%
1 Month
95.85%
increased by 15.46%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2002 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 305 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~305 daysv = 3.50 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 22.9453 | 2.11** |
| αARCH | 0.0850 | 22.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9977 | 1,065.95*** |
| νDF | 3.4976 | 21.99*** |
0.998
Persistence305d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 22.9453 | 2.11** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0850 | 22.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 1,065.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4976 | 21.99*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
305 days
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