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V-Lab

Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

124.05%

decreased by 1.15%

1 Week

124.06%

decreased by 1.14%

1 Month

124.08%

decreased by 1.12%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 9, 2002 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 768381 trading days (~3049.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~768381 daysδ = 3.00 · super-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0324
1.31
αARCH0.0268
1.10
βGARCH0.9567
73.01***
γleverage0.0651
0.68
δpower3.0000
2.62***

1.000

Persistence

768381d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0324
1.31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0268
1.10
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9567
73.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0651
0.68
δ

power

Transformation power

3.0000
2.62***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

768381 days