V-Lab
Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
124.05%
1 Week
124.06%
1 Month
124.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2002 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 768381 trading days (~3049.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0324 | 1.31 |
| αARCH | 0.0268 | 1.10 |
| βGARCH | 0.9567 | 73.01*** |
| γleverage | 0.0651 | 0.68 |
| δpower | 3.0000 | 2.62*** |
1.000
Persistence768381d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0324 | 1.31 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0268 | 1.10 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9567 | 73.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0651 | 0.68 |
δ power Transformation power | 3.0000 | 2.62*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
768381 days
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