V-Lab
Wal-Mart Stores Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
24.81%
1 Week
23.08%
1 Month
18.46%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 13% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.64 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0282 | 7.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.1878 | 16.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8037 | 66.73*** |
| γleverage | 0.0924 | 4.05*** |
| δpower | 0.6388 | 5.87*** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0282 | 7.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1878 | 16.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8037 | 66.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0924 | 4.05*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6388 | 5.87*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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