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Wal-Mart Stores Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

24.81%

decreased by 2.21%

1 Week

23.08%

decreased by 3.94%

1 Month

18.46%

decreased by 8.56%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wal-Mart Stores Inc APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 13% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.64 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 13% more than positive returnsδ = 0.64 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0282
7.17***
αARCH0.1878
16.25***
βGARCH0.8037
66.73***
γleverage0.0924
4.05***
δpower0.6388
5.87***

0.955

Persistence

15d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0282
7.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1878
16.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8037
66.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0924
4.05***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.6388
5.87***

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days