ExxonMobil Holdings Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
22.87%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
21.72%
decreased by 1.44%
1 Month
18.59%
decreased by 4.57%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 21% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.00 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0440 | 29.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2040 | 76.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7796 | 268.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0946 | 20.51*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0020 | 22.86*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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