ExxonMobil Holdings Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
21.18%
1 Week
20.21%
1 Month
17.55%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 21% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.00 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0442 | 7.34*** |
| αARCH | 0.2042 | 19.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7792 | 67.08*** |
| γleverage | 0.0940 | 5.13*** |
| δpower | 0.9998 | 5.72*** |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0442 | 7.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2042 | 19.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7792 | 67.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0940 | 5.13*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9998 | 5.72*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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