V-Lab
ExxonMobil Holdings Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
23.01%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
23.06%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Month
23.22%
decreased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:07 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 101% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~69 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 101% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0250 | 5.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0433 | 4.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9249 | 133.25*** |
| γleverage | 0.0438 | 2.27** |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0250 | 5.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0433 | 4.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9249 | 133.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0438 | 2.27** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
Other ExxonMobil Holdings Corp Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equities