V-Lab
ExxonMobil Holdings Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
22.20%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
22.26%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
22.50%
decreased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:41 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 104% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~69 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 104% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0251 | 5.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0430 | 4.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9247 | 132.90*** |
| γleverage | 0.0446 | 2.31** |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0251 | 5.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0430 | 4.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9247 | 132.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0446 | 2.31** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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