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ExxonMobil Holdings Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

22.20%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

22.26%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Month

22.50%

decreased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:41 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ExxonMobil Holdings Corp GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 104% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~69 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 104% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0251
5.09***
αARCH0.0430
4.88***
βGARCH0.9247
132.90***
γleverage0.0446
2.31**

0.990

Persistence

69d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0251
5.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0430
4.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9247
132.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0446
2.31**

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

69 days