V-Lab
Hallmark Financial Services Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, June 16th, 2026
1 Day
440.43%
1 Week
440.45%
1 Month
440.52%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 11:59 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 67% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0303 | 6.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0307 | 11.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9591 | 523.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0206 | 3.42*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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