V-Lab
Hallmark Financial Services Inc EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
3,264.73%
increased by 2,953.40%
1 Week
3,268.30%
increased by 2,956.97%
1 Month
3,282.39%
increased by 2,971.06%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 270 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 113% more than positive returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0284 | 8.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1028 | 22.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 1,793.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0371 | -3.36*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
270 days
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