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V-Lab

Hallmark Financial Services Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026

1 Day

417.85%

increased by 1.35%

1 Week

421.00%

increased by 4.50%

1 Month

433.99%

increased by 17.49%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hallmark Financial Services Inc AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.007 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0091
1.42
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0593
34.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9482
581.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5409
5.99***

Persistence:

1.007

Half-life:

-