V-Lab
Hallmark Financial Services Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
417.85%
1 Week
421.00%
1 Month
433.99%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.007 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0091 | 1.42 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0593 | 34.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9482 | 581.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5409 | 5.99*** |
Persistence:
1.007
Half-life:
-
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