V-Lab
NextBoat Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
74.43%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Week
84.63%
increased by 9.06%
1 Month
88.76%
increased by 13.19%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 13, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.14) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.0000 | 13.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2073 | 6.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2632 | 8.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -3.1390 | -6.73*** |
Persistence:
0.470
Half-life:
1 days
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