V-Lab
NextBoat Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
35.30%
1 Week
35,388,739.57%
1 Month
435,453,556,650,993,500,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 13, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 51 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
| βGARCH | 0.6552 | 260.52*** |
| γleverage | 0.5000 | 144.13*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.4716 | 19.12*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0028 | 0.09 |
0.905
Persistence7d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6552 | 260.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 144.13*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4716 | 19.12*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0028 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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