V-Lab
General Mills Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
27.07%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
28.31%
increased by 1.16%
1 Month
29.30%
increased by 2.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0783 | 4.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6615 | 12.99*** |
| γleverage | 0.0355 | 1.51 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0343 | 1.75* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0780 | 2.01** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9010 | 18.24*** |
0.758
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0783 | 4.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6615 | 12.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0355 | 1.51 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0343 | 1.75* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0780 | 2.01** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9010 | 18.24*** |
Persistence:
0.758
Half-life:
2 days
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