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Bristol-Myers Squibb Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

32.52%

increased by 7.55%

1 Week

31.86%

increased by 6.89%

1 Month

30.33%

increased by 5.36%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 132% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 132% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow116
αARCH0.0530
4.01***
βGARCH0.8154
35.81***
γleverage0.0699
3.37***
λ₁tau intercept0.0292
1.04
λ₂forecast adj.0.0325
1.26
λ₃tau persistence0.9571
27.12***

0.903

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

116
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0530
4.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8154
35.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0699
3.37***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0292
1.04
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0325
1.26
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9571
27.12***

Persistence:

0.903

Half-life:

7 days