V-Lab
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
30.51%
increased by 6.54%
1 Week
30.18%
increased by 6.21%
1 Month
29.57%
increased by 5.60%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 136% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0530 | 17.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8137 | 113.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0723 | 12.07*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0293 | 1.74* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0329 | 2.25** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9569 | 47.56*** |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
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