Bristol-Myers Squibb Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
27.78%
decreased by 1.16%
1 Week
27.88%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Month
28.11%
decreased by 0.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 10:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 138% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0520 | 17.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8154 | 114.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0719 | 12.07*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0293 | 1.73* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0327 | 2.23** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9570 | 47.31*** |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
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