V-Lab
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
27.84%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
27.96%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Month
28.35%
decreased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 137% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0522 | 17.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8158 | 114.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0713 | 12.04*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0290 | 1.74* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0326 | 2.24** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9572 | 47.85*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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