V-Lab
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
27.74%
1 Week
27.92%
1 Month
28.54%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 111% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.08 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0381 | 3.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.0693 | 6.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9267 | 80.76*** |
| γleverage | 0.3337 | 3.65*** |
| δpower | 1.0791 | 6.94*** |
0.983
Persistence39d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0381 | 3.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0693 | 6.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9267 | 80.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3337 | 3.65*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0791 | 6.94*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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