Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

27.74%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

27.92%

increased by 0.20%

1 Month

28.54%

increased by 0.82%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 111% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.08 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 111% more than positive returnsδ = 1.08 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0381
3.73***
αARCH0.0693
6.61***
βGARCH0.9267
80.76***
γleverage0.3337
3.65***
δpower1.0791
6.94***

0.983

Persistence

39d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0381
3.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0693
6.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9267
80.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3337
3.65***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0791
6.94***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

39 days