HP Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
42.71%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
42.92%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
43.71%
increased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 125% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.68 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0237 | 12.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0405 | 13.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9582 | 288.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5341 | 12.24*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6790 | 13.25*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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