HP Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
46.25%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
46.11%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Month
45.60%
decreased by 1.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0567 | 3.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.0209 | 3.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9616 | 121.86*** |
| γleverage | 0.0156 | 1.43 |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0567 | 3.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0209 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9616 | 121.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0156 | 1.43 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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