HP Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
43.50%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
43.41%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Month
43.07%
decreased by 1.10%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0570 | 3.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.0209 | 3.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9615 | 121.43*** |
| γleverage | 0.0157 | 1.44 |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0570 | 3.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0209 | 3.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9615 | 121.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0157 | 1.44 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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